Senate Forecast: GOP still favored to win it

[Woody Williams]

Senate Forecast: Cloudy With a Good Chance of a Republican Majority


www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/senate-forecast-cloudy-with-a-good-chance-of-a-republican-majority/

Lots of detailed analysis in that article, but here's the summary.

The blunt math: Our present ratings leave Republicans with 49 seats and Democrats with 47 seats, with four Toss-ups: Georgia and Louisiana, which both might be heading to overtime, and Colorado and Kansas, where incumbents Udall and Roberts are in deep trouble — especially Udall — but retain a path to victory. To claim a majority, Republicans need to win half of the Toss-up states. Democrats need to win three of them to achieve a Biden Majority (a 50-50 draw with Vice President Joe Biden’s tie-breaking vote giving Democrats the edge). Given the playing field, this arithmetic certainly advantages the GOP, but there is at least some chance that Democrats might pull off the unexpected.

So the Senate remains too close to call, but it’s clear that Republicans are well positioned to win a majority and that Democrats’ backs are up against the wall as Election Day approaches.

[dbd870]

This is kind of a different year from 2010; you would think with OBama's numbers being so low the GOP would be really making gains, but it seems like it's going to come right down to the wire.

[swilk]

At the end of the day it is very hard to get people who always vote Democrat to vote Republican and vise-versa .... who can get their base to turn out and who can keep from putting their foot firmly in their mouth and kill their chances with the independent voters is what is important.

That said .... it will be a shocker if the Republicans cant take control of the Senate. If they cant .... it will mean major changes for the party going forward. They will be forced to embrace some of the more liberal social issues they are currently against. Even if they do win those forced changes arent in the too distant future.

[jjas]

From a previous post.....

Even if the Republicans can take over the Senate, the majority is going to be a couple of seats (at best). And anything they try to push through will be vetoed @ Obama's desk and there is no way they (Republican Senators) are going to get a 2/3 majority to override that veto.


My guess is that very little will be accomplished in the next two years.....

[dbd870]

Gridlock isn't all bad now.

[swilk]

But it will be take away the "party of obstruction" talking point he is so fond of.

Other than that.....yep.