Got a reply from Adam Phelps: Email attached

[bschwein]

Got a reply back from the Waterfowl biologist today on the email I had sent him regarding my concerns with the season dates. From what i can tell in his email he is basing most of his information off of: A.. a 20yr average timing of migration ..B.comments from the public....C...comments from there property managers....for determing the season dates. Also he said there were 5,000 surverys sent out and roughly 2,000 replies. which the majority, but not by much asked for the 9-day split early season. I guess those of us that want the later season were not the majority who received the surveys and we didnt attend enough open houses when they held them. SO, the next time the open houses come up, we need to pool together and let our voices be heard. Hopefully the surverys are in our majority the next time there sent out.

[Decatur]

Another example of us sportsmen reacting too late to something important to us.

[snakeeye]

It's amazing how few people ultimately made the change. Although I haven't ran the numbers, I'd guess there is no statistically significant difference between the categories in which case I don't think there's enough evidence to make change. I'd like to see a decision rule established in writing before the next survey is sent out; anything else is bad science.

Also, I hope the next survey is more concise based on what was learned from the last one.

[duff]

blah blah blah you sound pretty smart for one who admits to not sending in your survey!!! Grin and bear it buddy, you chose not to voice your opinion for one reason or another.

[bschwein]

Heres the response:

Mr.Schwein:

Thank you for your comments. I apologize for not responding in a more timely manner. When you initially wrote, I was at a goose meeting out of state, and I am now in the midst of gearing up for the spring field season. I hope that I can provide some information below as to how the seasons are determined.

As you know, we performed a hunter preference survey after the 2004-05 season. We mailed surveys to 5,000 randomly-selected HIP-registered waterfowlers over a certain age (16, I think, though I was not here yet when they were mailed; average age was in the 40s). We received just over 2,000 responses, including some from every county. Because hunters were selected at random, they should accurately reflect the distribution of waterfowlers in Indiana.

After the analysis of those data, we released a set of draft seasons, then hosted a series of open houses around the state (Willow Slough, Atterbury, and Sugar Ridge) to discuss them. The seasons were then set in August after we received the USFWS guidelines. The seasons are based largely on the survey, but taking into account: a) 20-year average timing of waterfowl migration; b) comments from the public that we received during and after the open houses; and c) comments from our property managers.

In the hunter preference survey, there was a strong preference for a 9-day early split in the south zone. The strength of the data convinces us that a majority of the 2000+ respondents want a longer early split than they have gotten in the past. In fact, the second choice was 14 early days, with two early days coming in third (out of four choices). It doesn't completely reflect the complexity of the analysis, but to give you an idea, within the south zone, 180 hunters chose a nine-day split as their first choice, 181 chose a 14-day split, 139 chose a 2-day split (with 147 making it their last choice), and only 89 chose a split longer than 14 days. We have also received calls and spoken to hunters at the open houses who do like the long early split.

In addition, the long early split is during the peak of wood duck migration in the south zone over a 20-year average. This is also a time of near-peak non-mallard dabbler abundance in the south zone. Because so many hunters choose to pursue woodies, I looked at all ducks, wood duck only, and all non-mallard dabblers, all over a 20-year period. Mallard numbers start the steep climb about the third week of November (about when the south zone opened), and drop sharply usually the second or third week of January. Non-mallard dabblers climb steadily throughout October and November, with peak numbers over the extended period of mid-October through the first week of December. Woodies actually peak in late Sept., with a second, slightly lower peak in the second and third weeks of October. There are a many hunters that like to hunt woodies in that early split, before it gets very cold, while open water is virtually guaranteed. The mallard count drops off by about the 2nd week of January on average; our season ended 11 January.

What you have described perfectly reflects much of the southern portion of the south zone, of course. The problem is that the south zone is so long that to set the season extremely late can completely exclude hunters in the northern parts of the south zone from having a huntable late split at all. While you may not be able to hunt during the absolute best days (which varies greatly from year to year, which is why I use 20-year averages), you can usually hunt all 60
days. That is nearly never true for those hunting the northern part of the zone. There are federal restrictions that prevent us from changing our zones without losing our splits.

I am sorry that you were unhappy with this year's duck season. I can tell you as a duck hunter that I was not happy with it either, but that has nothing to do with timing: it's all about weather. Indiana is completely dependent on weather to our north to bring us mallards. I believe, and our migration data show, that in a year without El Nino (a year with "normal" weather), the season dates would have been fine. There is simply no way to predict migration except based on long-term trends, which is what I do.

Thanks again for your comments.

W. Adam Phelps
Waterfowl Research Biologist
Indiana Division of Fish and Wildlife
553 E. Miller Drive
Bloomington, IN 47401

[e-mail]
Voice: 812.334.1137
Fax: [phone]

[kyle]

I think he hit the nail on the head!

[indianagooseman]

Exact reply Terry got over on the refuge forums.
refugeforums.com/refuge/showthread.php?t=506689

[snakeeye]

duff, I proudly accept full responsibility for knowing what a null hypothesis is.

[steelbbs]

What needs to be asked here is where is he getting his migration numbers? If he is relying on just the state refuges to get his numbers than that pretty much leaves he middle of the state out of the count since we have no refuges there.
Not that the property managers work hard but they are estimating what is on there refuge and not the surrounding area.

Remember the seasons are set so that the hunters get maximum days afield not quality hunting.

[oneshotbandit]

I will have to agree w/Mr. Phelps! If you hunters in the southern or mid south Indiana had your way we in the upper SZ would be froze out in a normal (NOT a El Nino weather pattern). If any of you all read Mr. Frank Bellrose's book you'd find that Mr. Phelps 20 year avg's are about right as a whole. Yes there are some differences that can & DO happen w/migrating fowl. Lock & load! ;D Example: I had a lease in Albion that would be froze by Thanksgiving week. That IMO equals lost money & time as I only got to hunt it 6-9 days!

[steelbbs]

I have hunted int the north zone and I used to think that when everything froze up all the ducks went south. Well I was in for a superise when I moved into my new house 12 yrs ago and seen 500 and 1000 mallards going down into a ditch in front of my house, everyday from freeze up till thaw. I have also seen malllards by the hundreds sitting on the kankakee river when everything is forzen.

[snakeeye]

OSB,

It sounds like you need to hit one of the many rivers up your way late in the season. We had ducks landing right in front of us all morning y'day with no duck dekes, only a dozen geese dekes.

[oneshotbandit]

Snakeeye,
Kinda hard to hunt the river when it's flooded. I do hunt the Mississinewa, but this season it was too high to hunt from the bank & the days we hunted it we didn't see the first duck!. I don't hunt the other rivers (I do like the Wabash R. west of the town of Wabash) because my boat was stolen and I have no where to keep one at my apartment (brother died). Most hunting is done from the bank or a marsh. I do have a lead on my partner's boat (he quit duck hunting-not enough to hold his interest), but I gotta find where to store it. The Reservoir's ramps are usually froze by the first week or so. This is an observation from 30 years of hunting there. This was a most unusually warm late Fall- early Winter, though. Maybe next season will be better, FWIW I shot more ducks & shells in the 7 days I was in Arkansas this season!

[snakeeye]

OSB,

The rivers were definitely tough to hunt this year.

Snake

[shootsa410]

snakeeye said:

OSB,

The rivers were definitely tough to hunt this year.

Snake

Hey Duff, when did you get your invite to do a hunt? It wasn't tough at all for me, I never got a call.

[duff]

We don't need an invite, it's public. Maybe next season we will hit it a few times. It is usually good when everything freezes and around Christmas the ducks seem to peak then. And the sunny days when the geese are not hitting the fields they will still be flying on the water, just another spot to keep in mind.

At least it has been my observation over the past few previous yrs. Hard to tell this year. Floods and no real hard freezes might have kept things messed up. I didn't hunt it once this year and didn't get any reports on how it was doing either...

[snakeeye]

The ducks were flyin' good Saturday... : )

I'm just glad I got 2 deer in the freezer because I never had to worry about waterfowl possession limits this year while hunting or trying to hunt the river.