Post by Decatur on Jan 7, 2009 6:21:22 GMT -5
GENERAL OUTLOOK
by Parker Dozhier
During the past month, I have visited with numerous fur buyers, several trappers and a few of the receiving agents for the auction houses. It’s difficult to sum up their reaction to the current market situation in one word. But, if it was to be only one word it would be: Fear.
Uncertainty and instability spawn fear. For this reason, prices being paid in the country have been all over the board. Generally, low averages are being reported from all regions. This is certainly understandable considering the total lack of firm information available regarding the market.
For those who harbored fears of flooding the market this season due to reports of high prices last season, forget it. One trip to the local fur buyer dreaming of $40 raccoons turned-out to be a reality lesson.
Few of the active buyers are interested in investing more than they can afford to either lose or wait a protracted length of time before finding a willing buyer.
Three major international auctions in Europe during mid-December will have the full attention of all of those involved in the fur trade.
The first offering of the season will be a Dec. 11 sale of wild caught and ranch sable and ranch mink in St. Petersburg, Russia. In the past, this Soyuzpushnina auction has enjoyed good attendance as buyers clamor for the sable to feed the expanding luxury markets. Recent Russian ranch mink sales have been disappointing. But the lack of clearance was not due to demand for mink. It’s reported that price limits and low quality is responsible for this lack of movement.
Next comes the Dec. 14 and 15 offering of fresh ranch mink at the Copenhagen Fur Center. This will be followed by the Dec. 19 through 22 Finish Auction of ranch mink in Helsinki.
While it might appear somewhat strange, the results from these early ranch sales will set the tone for country fur buying activity from Maine to Alaska.
The reasons are threefold: Buyers attending these sales will have more insider information on the current and anticipated retail sales than anyone in the trade. They have firm information regarding their customers’ wants and needs. If they don’t have such information, they won’t be there. The number of buyers in attendance will be critical information.
Should buyer attendance be down by 50 percent or more, that’s clear indication of trouble ahead.
Clearance will also be critical information. Should they attend and not buy, possibly due to price constants, the unsold goods will be carried over, which typically results in lower prices later. Reasonably good clearance will indicate clear skies ahead. The fur market lives on.
While certainly a consideration, prices paid will be another element, but prices are expected to be lower. Just how much lower before auction officials withdraw the offering is a critical unknown. Considering the soaring value of the U.S. dollar against most currencies, a 15 percent to 20 percent decline over late spring levels would certainly be reasonable.
However, some key elements determining the future of our wild fur markets are known.
Weather in Russia and Eastern Europe has been milder than normal. Early winter temperatures in Moscow and St. Petersburg have remained in the high 20s to mid-30s throughout most of November and early December. We’re all aware of the impact a mild winter has on fur sales.
North China, on the other hand, has experienced a typical cold, windy early winter.
Luxury sales continue to plummet. High-end jeweler Tiffany’s and modestly priced jewelers, such as Zale and Signet report dismal retail activity.
India, where the bulk of the world’s diamonds are polished, has suspended all importation of stones for one month in hopes the market will absorb existing inventories.
But, the luxury trade does not impact the movement of all wild furs to the same degree as it might have on the ranch mink and sable markets.
Don Rumford, with Fur Harvesters Auction, points out that our markets are much broader and deeper than during the 1987 crash. So true. At the time of that downturn, we were almost entirely dependent on high-end luxury markets. Today, it is more often the common laborer on the streets in Moscow or Beijing, with a little newfound wealth, buying a fur hat or stole from an open-air vendor. That’s a far cry from the “Snow Bunnies” of the ’80s decked out in a luxurious red fox ski parka.
“Those that are shopping might not buy a full length mink. But, they can buy a nice cloth coat with fur trim,” Rumford said.
Many of our wild furs are certainly a low-cost alternative to mink or sable.
Our fur markets have seen turbulent times in the past. We have endured everything from political unrest, fear of travel due to disease epidemics, highly volatile currency exchange rates, soaring interest rates, fur dressing plant strikes and the unfounded emotional attacks. But, the fur trade always comes back.
Nearly two centuries ago, the fur trade was said to be over. It was finished. Silk from the Orient destroyed the beaver markets. Companies from the West Coast to the East Coast went bankrupt. St. Louis was on the verge of economic collapse. Fortunes were lost.
Today, we harvest more beaver than during the height of the “Mountain Man Era.”
The current downturn is different, but each one before was also different. This time, we are confronted with global economy instability with the associated credit crisis. This too will pass.
MARKET BRIEFS
BEAVER: This labor-intensive article will likely see one of the shortest harvests in many years. Auction houses report a few inquiries about large, heavy beaver. That’s somewhat encouraging. Everything depends on the retail sales activity of fur items during the next three months. China, Russia and Eastern Europe will be critical. With that in mind, don’t expect to see any significant push by buyers to put early collections together.
MUSKRAT: Buyers appear willing to speculate on the limited numbers they are seeing. A few collections of northern finished XLs have hit highs of $3 to $3.50, but most averages are below $2. This might be the season’s “sleeper.” Should ranch mink prices hold or only decline 20 percent to 30 percent at the early auctions, muskrat could see some interesting late season activity.
WILD MINK: Don’t expect a lot of interest in this article. Current buyers are taking goods in the $8 to $10 range for the best from the northern regions, far less in the South. Most are being taken in conjunction with muskrat trapping. This is a good candidate for the freezer. Typically, this is an article that is best sold early. That is most likely not the case this season.
RACCOON: Early snows across the Midwest reduced the harvest somewhat. The lower prevailing prices also served to dampen enthusiasm of those “chasing the market.” Scattered reports out of regions 10 and 12 have highs hitting $20 to $22, but averages remain below $10 for the most part. Small sizes are seeing offers of $1, or being told there is no market. Country buyers are reporting seeing few, if any, finished pelts. In fact, a great deal of the buying has been on the carcass, serving only to further reduce averages. There is no truly established market and that is likely to remain the case until much later in the season ... possibly spring or early summer.
RED FOX: Most buying has been based solely on speculation, and that has been cheap. Scattered reports from regions 1 and 2 have the very best “cherry reds” at a tops of $20, however, most offers have been in the range of $10 to $12. Flatter goods, off color — frosty rumps — and smalls are being turned away. If a firm market does develop, it will be much later in the season.
GRAY FOX: Unsold goods from last season, the unsettled nature of the overall fur market and disappointing news regarding the Russian economy has led to buyers being reluctant to speculate too deeply into this article. Most trading has been in range of $14 to $18. This is understandably only a guess at resale value, in that until the fresh goods and the carryovers are sold will any firm information be available. Retail activity, once known, could have a significant impact. If sales are good, this could be less than half value. However, if Russian fur sales are as dismal as much of the current retail activity, an $18 offer might be a winner.
COYOTE: Trappers and fur hunters are reporting some difficulty in finding willing buyers for the early season goods. This is understandable, in that a number of buyers are still holding collections from previous seasons. Until these goods are sold, at wherever the price, there is no established market. Trim goods have flooded the marketplace for several years. This season’s crop of ranch fox produced in the Scandinavian countries is reported to be more than 25 percent smaller than last year’s. This might give some limited relief later in the year to the beleaguered coyote market. Worldwide retail activity will hold the key.
Retail activity in the major luxury trade centers will be watched closely. Should the raw goods sold last season that are now finished coats in front of shoppers continue to sell even at a much slower pace, then replacement inventories will be in order. It also should be pointed out that retail furriers are offering steep discounts on existing inventories in an effort to lure shoppers. That alone will result in lower raw skin prices paid to the producers. Pelts of southern goods, flats, weak bellies and small sizes will find few willing buyers. This would be a good years to explore the taxidermy trade.
REGION 11
BEAVER: Northern section blankets at tops of $18 to $22, with southern section goods at $10 to $14 if large, super clean and fully furred and well finished. Most will be hatters.
MUSKRAT: Prices for good winters are expected to top at $2 to $2.50; some well-handled XL collections of good winters slightly higher.
WILD MINK: XL males at a tops of $8 to $10, females slightly better than half.
RED FOX: XLs in the range of $14 to $16 for most.
GRAY FOX: Top prices in the range of $16 to $18 for Southern sections. Northern goods at $20 to $22. Buyers will be speculating and cautious.
RACCOON: Lite semi-heavies XXXL, XXL, and XL Is and IIs from Southern section expected to be trading at $8 to $10 tops. Northern section semi-heavies at $12 to $14 tops for finished pelts. Wet averages running around $8. Discount $3 to $4 for wet goods. Off colors and small sizes will see deep discounts. Buying selective.
COYOTE: The best trading at $10 and $12; and then only if bellies are clear white and fully furred. A few Northern section may see $15, but they will be rare. Very tight grade, market flooded with low-grade carryovers.
OTTER: OK/AR/MO type pales at highs of $20 to $25. Expect a tough grade. Some darks may see $30.
BOBCAT: Tops at $20 to $30 depending on bellies. Some selects at $45 Northern sections wide clear, well spotted bellies add dollars. Don’t expect market to be established until late January of February.
REGION 12
BEAVER: Blankets, once fully prime, select goods at $24 to $28.
CASTOR $14 to $15 per pound for properly handled, plump. Shells cheap.
MUSKRAT: Presently top XLs trading at $2.50 to $3.
WILD MINK: Expect to see top offers of $12 to $14, most around $10. Females slightly better than half.
RED FOX: Heavy fully prime XL goods are trading at $16 to $18. Dark, cherry reds preferred, should be higher. Frosty rumps and pales discounted.
GRAY FOX: Highs of $20 to $22 expected.
RACCOON: XXXL and XXL Is and IIs at $20 to $22; finished goods. Averages running slightly over $10. This is most sought after region, but expect a tight grade as to color and size.
COYOTE: A tops of $18 to $22 if bellies wide and clear; most cheap.
FISHER: Highs of $30 to $35. Females preferred.
OTTER: Tops believed to be around $40 for straight hair, darks.
by Parker Dozhier
During the past month, I have visited with numerous fur buyers, several trappers and a few of the receiving agents for the auction houses. It’s difficult to sum up their reaction to the current market situation in one word. But, if it was to be only one word it would be: Fear.
Uncertainty and instability spawn fear. For this reason, prices being paid in the country have been all over the board. Generally, low averages are being reported from all regions. This is certainly understandable considering the total lack of firm information available regarding the market.
For those who harbored fears of flooding the market this season due to reports of high prices last season, forget it. One trip to the local fur buyer dreaming of $40 raccoons turned-out to be a reality lesson.
Few of the active buyers are interested in investing more than they can afford to either lose or wait a protracted length of time before finding a willing buyer.
Three major international auctions in Europe during mid-December will have the full attention of all of those involved in the fur trade.
The first offering of the season will be a Dec. 11 sale of wild caught and ranch sable and ranch mink in St. Petersburg, Russia. In the past, this Soyuzpushnina auction has enjoyed good attendance as buyers clamor for the sable to feed the expanding luxury markets. Recent Russian ranch mink sales have been disappointing. But the lack of clearance was not due to demand for mink. It’s reported that price limits and low quality is responsible for this lack of movement.
Next comes the Dec. 14 and 15 offering of fresh ranch mink at the Copenhagen Fur Center. This will be followed by the Dec. 19 through 22 Finish Auction of ranch mink in Helsinki.
While it might appear somewhat strange, the results from these early ranch sales will set the tone for country fur buying activity from Maine to Alaska.
The reasons are threefold: Buyers attending these sales will have more insider information on the current and anticipated retail sales than anyone in the trade. They have firm information regarding their customers’ wants and needs. If they don’t have such information, they won’t be there. The number of buyers in attendance will be critical information.
Should buyer attendance be down by 50 percent or more, that’s clear indication of trouble ahead.
Clearance will also be critical information. Should they attend and not buy, possibly due to price constants, the unsold goods will be carried over, which typically results in lower prices later. Reasonably good clearance will indicate clear skies ahead. The fur market lives on.
While certainly a consideration, prices paid will be another element, but prices are expected to be lower. Just how much lower before auction officials withdraw the offering is a critical unknown. Considering the soaring value of the U.S. dollar against most currencies, a 15 percent to 20 percent decline over late spring levels would certainly be reasonable.
However, some key elements determining the future of our wild fur markets are known.
Weather in Russia and Eastern Europe has been milder than normal. Early winter temperatures in Moscow and St. Petersburg have remained in the high 20s to mid-30s throughout most of November and early December. We’re all aware of the impact a mild winter has on fur sales.
North China, on the other hand, has experienced a typical cold, windy early winter.
Luxury sales continue to plummet. High-end jeweler Tiffany’s and modestly priced jewelers, such as Zale and Signet report dismal retail activity.
India, where the bulk of the world’s diamonds are polished, has suspended all importation of stones for one month in hopes the market will absorb existing inventories.
But, the luxury trade does not impact the movement of all wild furs to the same degree as it might have on the ranch mink and sable markets.
Don Rumford, with Fur Harvesters Auction, points out that our markets are much broader and deeper than during the 1987 crash. So true. At the time of that downturn, we were almost entirely dependent on high-end luxury markets. Today, it is more often the common laborer on the streets in Moscow or Beijing, with a little newfound wealth, buying a fur hat or stole from an open-air vendor. That’s a far cry from the “Snow Bunnies” of the ’80s decked out in a luxurious red fox ski parka.
“Those that are shopping might not buy a full length mink. But, they can buy a nice cloth coat with fur trim,” Rumford said.
Many of our wild furs are certainly a low-cost alternative to mink or sable.
Our fur markets have seen turbulent times in the past. We have endured everything from political unrest, fear of travel due to disease epidemics, highly volatile currency exchange rates, soaring interest rates, fur dressing plant strikes and the unfounded emotional attacks. But, the fur trade always comes back.
Nearly two centuries ago, the fur trade was said to be over. It was finished. Silk from the Orient destroyed the beaver markets. Companies from the West Coast to the East Coast went bankrupt. St. Louis was on the verge of economic collapse. Fortunes were lost.
Today, we harvest more beaver than during the height of the “Mountain Man Era.”
The current downturn is different, but each one before was also different. This time, we are confronted with global economy instability with the associated credit crisis. This too will pass.
MARKET BRIEFS
BEAVER: This labor-intensive article will likely see one of the shortest harvests in many years. Auction houses report a few inquiries about large, heavy beaver. That’s somewhat encouraging. Everything depends on the retail sales activity of fur items during the next three months. China, Russia and Eastern Europe will be critical. With that in mind, don’t expect to see any significant push by buyers to put early collections together.
MUSKRAT: Buyers appear willing to speculate on the limited numbers they are seeing. A few collections of northern finished XLs have hit highs of $3 to $3.50, but most averages are below $2. This might be the season’s “sleeper.” Should ranch mink prices hold or only decline 20 percent to 30 percent at the early auctions, muskrat could see some interesting late season activity.
WILD MINK: Don’t expect a lot of interest in this article. Current buyers are taking goods in the $8 to $10 range for the best from the northern regions, far less in the South. Most are being taken in conjunction with muskrat trapping. This is a good candidate for the freezer. Typically, this is an article that is best sold early. That is most likely not the case this season.
RACCOON: Early snows across the Midwest reduced the harvest somewhat. The lower prevailing prices also served to dampen enthusiasm of those “chasing the market.” Scattered reports out of regions 10 and 12 have highs hitting $20 to $22, but averages remain below $10 for the most part. Small sizes are seeing offers of $1, or being told there is no market. Country buyers are reporting seeing few, if any, finished pelts. In fact, a great deal of the buying has been on the carcass, serving only to further reduce averages. There is no truly established market and that is likely to remain the case until much later in the season ... possibly spring or early summer.
RED FOX: Most buying has been based solely on speculation, and that has been cheap. Scattered reports from regions 1 and 2 have the very best “cherry reds” at a tops of $20, however, most offers have been in the range of $10 to $12. Flatter goods, off color — frosty rumps — and smalls are being turned away. If a firm market does develop, it will be much later in the season.
GRAY FOX: Unsold goods from last season, the unsettled nature of the overall fur market and disappointing news regarding the Russian economy has led to buyers being reluctant to speculate too deeply into this article. Most trading has been in range of $14 to $18. This is understandably only a guess at resale value, in that until the fresh goods and the carryovers are sold will any firm information be available. Retail activity, once known, could have a significant impact. If sales are good, this could be less than half value. However, if Russian fur sales are as dismal as much of the current retail activity, an $18 offer might be a winner.
COYOTE: Trappers and fur hunters are reporting some difficulty in finding willing buyers for the early season goods. This is understandable, in that a number of buyers are still holding collections from previous seasons. Until these goods are sold, at wherever the price, there is no established market. Trim goods have flooded the marketplace for several years. This season’s crop of ranch fox produced in the Scandinavian countries is reported to be more than 25 percent smaller than last year’s. This might give some limited relief later in the year to the beleaguered coyote market. Worldwide retail activity will hold the key.
Retail activity in the major luxury trade centers will be watched closely. Should the raw goods sold last season that are now finished coats in front of shoppers continue to sell even at a much slower pace, then replacement inventories will be in order. It also should be pointed out that retail furriers are offering steep discounts on existing inventories in an effort to lure shoppers. That alone will result in lower raw skin prices paid to the producers. Pelts of southern goods, flats, weak bellies and small sizes will find few willing buyers. This would be a good years to explore the taxidermy trade.
REGION 11
BEAVER: Northern section blankets at tops of $18 to $22, with southern section goods at $10 to $14 if large, super clean and fully furred and well finished. Most will be hatters.
MUSKRAT: Prices for good winters are expected to top at $2 to $2.50; some well-handled XL collections of good winters slightly higher.
WILD MINK: XL males at a tops of $8 to $10, females slightly better than half.
RED FOX: XLs in the range of $14 to $16 for most.
GRAY FOX: Top prices in the range of $16 to $18 for Southern sections. Northern goods at $20 to $22. Buyers will be speculating and cautious.
RACCOON: Lite semi-heavies XXXL, XXL, and XL Is and IIs from Southern section expected to be trading at $8 to $10 tops. Northern section semi-heavies at $12 to $14 tops for finished pelts. Wet averages running around $8. Discount $3 to $4 for wet goods. Off colors and small sizes will see deep discounts. Buying selective.
COYOTE: The best trading at $10 and $12; and then only if bellies are clear white and fully furred. A few Northern section may see $15, but they will be rare. Very tight grade, market flooded with low-grade carryovers.
OTTER: OK/AR/MO type pales at highs of $20 to $25. Expect a tough grade. Some darks may see $30.
BOBCAT: Tops at $20 to $30 depending on bellies. Some selects at $45 Northern sections wide clear, well spotted bellies add dollars. Don’t expect market to be established until late January of February.
REGION 12
BEAVER: Blankets, once fully prime, select goods at $24 to $28.
CASTOR $14 to $15 per pound for properly handled, plump. Shells cheap.
MUSKRAT: Presently top XLs trading at $2.50 to $3.
WILD MINK: Expect to see top offers of $12 to $14, most around $10. Females slightly better than half.
RED FOX: Heavy fully prime XL goods are trading at $16 to $18. Dark, cherry reds preferred, should be higher. Frosty rumps and pales discounted.
GRAY FOX: Highs of $20 to $22 expected.
RACCOON: XXXL and XXL Is and IIs at $20 to $22; finished goods. Averages running slightly over $10. This is most sought after region, but expect a tight grade as to color and size.
COYOTE: A tops of $18 to $22 if bellies wide and clear; most cheap.
FISHER: Highs of $30 to $35. Females preferred.
OTTER: Tops believed to be around $40 for straight hair, darks.